As the burden of climate change escalates across the world, more awareness is needed to limit its impacts on our lives. We are witnessing a drastic increase in the destructiveness of climate-related natural disasters and extreme climatic events. According to the report “Weather, Climate and Catastrophe Insight” prepared by the Aon insurance company, which researches the subject, 2021 was the sixth year in which global natural disasters caused more than $100 billion in damages – and all of these six years have occurred since 2011. Therefore, in addition to the risk of losing the natural assets of our planet, we are also facing a very serious economic risk. However, when considering the costs of climate change, only looking at the losses and damages, it caused in the past and ignoring the future costs will mislead us. For this reason, in order to see the extent of the risk in question, it would be useful to shed some light on the general dimensions of the recent effects of climate change and the costs of not struggling against it.
Daunting 2021 numbers
According to the report prepared by Aon for 2021, the economic loss caused by events related to extreme weather and climate change events reached $329 billion. According to the report published by Christian Aid, which carried out other research, when the extreme weather events in the world are listed, the most destructive weather events are caused by climate change, and the damage caused by the top 10 events in 2021 totaled $170.30 billion alone.
In the same study, it was reported that Hurricane Ida led to massive destruction in the U.S., causing approximately $65 billion in damage. The floods in the Henan province of China in July, where 302 people died, caused $17 billion. The floods in Europe caused 240 deaths and led to $43 billion worth of economic damage, while the other extreme weather events left behind about $1.5 billion in damage. On the other hand, most of these estimates are based on insured losses only. In other words, the real financial costs of extreme weather events in 2021 are likely to be even higher than these figures.
Another recent study was published by the European Environment Agency (EEA). According to the report, the economic losses caused by extreme weather and climate events during the past 40 years ranged between $480 billion and $555 billion, and these events led to the death of 85,000 to 145,000 people. The highest economic losses occurred during this period in Germany, France and Italy, respectively. Another remarkable finding is that only 23% of the total recorded economic losses are insured.
In the report published by Aon, the cost estimates of the weather and climate-related disasters that Turkey experienced in 2021 were also shared. According to the report, while nearly a $400 million in economic loss occurred as a result of floods in the past year, forest fires cost more than $290 million.
Clearly, climate-related weather events have caused serious economic losses in addition to the damage they have caused to the natural heritage and living conditions of our planet in recent years – especially in the past year. Even though these findings are sufficient for us to take urgent action, let’s take a look at a few analyzes of the situation if no action is taken.
Costs will increase
We need to realize that the goal reached by countries with the Paris Agreement to keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to the preindustrial era is not just a provision of law, but an obligation for humanity and our planet to continue to maintain livable conditions. In addition, if we cannot achieve this goal, it is inevitably possible that many countries will experience economic stalemates.
In this context, in the report published by Swiss RE Group, which models different global temperature increase scenarios, if the countries succeed in achieving the Paris Agreement target, there is a possibility that economic losses will occur at a level that can be considered insignificant by the middle of the century. On the other hand, Swiss RE Group calculates that this scenario is quite difficult and if the current trend continues, the global temperature increase will reach 2.6 degrees Celsius by 2050. If this situation occurs, the U.S. will grow 7% less compared to the scenario in which the 2 degree Celsius target is met. According to the report, which states that a similar situation is valid for other developed countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom and France, it is predicted that these countries will achieve a smaller growth of between 6% and 10%. Carrying out a similar analysis for the U.S., the British multinational professional services company Deloitte stated that if the measures taken on climate change remain insufficient, it will cost the U.S. economy $14.5 trillion in the next 50 years. It also said that an economic loss on such a scale would be equivalent to 4% of the gross domestic product (GDP), or $1.5 trillion, by 2070.
This scenario is not only limited to developed countries. In the analysis of Swiss RE Group, an intimidating picture illustrates that even if the global temperature increase is limited to 2 degrees Celsius, the economic growth figures in Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand will be 20% below what they expected by 2050. If the temperature increase reaches up to 3.2 degrees Celsius, these figures are expected to increase up to 33%. In addition, in this case, Indonesia is expected to have 40% less growth and India 35% less growth compared to current expectations. Undoubtedly, the consequences will be much more acute for poor countries exposed to higher temperatures due to their geographical location but have less ability to adapt their infrastructures and economies accordingly. Therefore, as it is frequently mentioned in international climate change negotiations and predicted in scientific research, the action of all countries to go beyond the 2 degree Celsius target and strive to reach the 1.5 degree Celsius target means much more, especially for developing countries.
Turkey takes precautions
The consulting firm McKinsey has revealed its findings that governments, businesses and individuals need to increase their total global spending on energy and land-use systems by as much as $3.5 trillion annually to achieve net-zero emission targets by 2050. Looking at the details of the figures, this amount indicates 60% more than the amount of investment made today. Another $1 trillion would need to be reallocated from high-emission assets to low- and zero-emission assets, according to McKinsey’s calculations. In summary, in order to reach the net-zero emission target by 2050, a radical transformation in the global economy is required.
With this awareness, our country is working rapidly in line with our target of net zero emissions by 2053 under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. As an example for other countries in the global transformation, Turkey is extremely determined to successfully implement the Green Development Revolution. In this context, in addition to the long-term climate change strategy and action plan, we will create our long-term energy strategies and show the importance we attach to renewable energy. We will further increase energy efficiency practices in our cities, ensure the electrification of urban transportation, create strategies for the transformation of carbon-intensive sectors in the industry and take steps in the field of the circular economy.
The new climate law is a very important step in this respect. Through such policies, we will exert all our efforts to minimize the costs of climate change, which may pose an obstacle to the growth and development of our country in the upcoming period. In addition, we will effectively communicate with all our stakeholders while our aforementioned policies are being implemented. As a matter of fact, the climate council that we have successfully organized has shown that all of our people, especially our youth, our public institutions and organizations, our business sector, our academics and nongovernmental organizations are extremely willing to do their best to combat the problem of climate change. They firmly trust our national policies. At this point, it is up to us to stop damaging the natural heritage of our planet and our economies, and success will be achieved with the joint efforts of all of us. After all, everyone should be aware that there is no other world to go to!
