Globally, for some time, a green transformation has been taking place, spurred on by the transition from fossil fuel-based sources to renewable energy sources. Without a doubt, emissions stemming from the unstainable consumption of fossil fuels are one of the most important causes of climate change. Therefore, over the years many countries have taken steps to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels, especially coal, both in exports and imports, while some have chosen to remove the use of coal from their economic models. However, until now, whether it be G-7, G-20 or U.N. gatherings, fossil fuels have never found a proper place on the agenda.
The coal discussions
In the last 10 years, the exclusion of inefficient fossil fuel incentives has been on the global agenda. Since the impacts of climate change are being more severely felt, the discussions on international platforms have gained momentum.
In 2021, the first clear statement on coal policies appeared at the G-7 summit in June, where it was declared that coal-based electricity production is the biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions. It was also accepted that international investments in unabated coal needed to stop as soon as possible. The G-7 members made a commitment to end state aid. The G-7 leaders, who also promised not to finance coal-fired power plants after 2021, refrained from putting an end date on using coal. It is worth mentioning briefly the term “unreduced.” The term was featured in 2021’s Net Zero energy report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and in statements released after the G-7 ministers and leaders’ meetings. The expression in question refers to the use of coal that cannot be reduced by technologies that minimize carbon dioxide emissions, such as carbon capture and storage technologies.
In the G-20 meeting in Italy’s Rome last year, the increased number of stakeholders and the diversity of their economies caused the discussions to end on a different note than at the G-7 talks. For some time, the G-20 statements include “reducing inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”; however, they could not agree to a similar approach to coal.
According to the Rome summit declaration, the G-20 leaders agreed to end new public subsidies directly used for electricity generation with non-reduced coal abroad and to stop international investments in this field. The statement also emphasized that electricity generation using coal is the biggest cause of greenhouse gas emissions. In this sense, as was never seen before, the G-7 and G-20 summits harbingered that coal would be abandoned, albeit gradually.
Following the two big meetings, the leaders came together on the margins of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, in Glasgow. This time it was much more difficult to make a decision about coal. All countries had to be convinced for a final COP decision. With the initiative overseen by the United Kingdom at the very beginning of the session, more than 40 countries, including important coal consumers such as Poland, Chile and Vietnam, committed to ending all investments in new coal-fired electricity generation at home and abroad. They also agreed to phase out coal power by around 2030 for large economies and by 2040 for poorer countries.
China and the United States preferred not to participate in this initiative. On the other hand, as the negotiations were continuing, the U.S. and China released a joint statement. With regard to coal, the declaration said China is committed to the phasedown of coal consumption during its 15th five-year plan and the support for non-reduced coal-based power generation. Coal was somehow declared “undesirable.”
However, minutes before the Glasgow climate pact was ratified, reactions from developed countries rose when India demanded the use of the phrase “phasing out coal.” After intense consultations, this demand, voiced by India and supported by China, was accepted in order to accept the pact and achieve consensus. Despite all the criticism, the Glasgow pact included statements committing to the “phasing out coal energy and the phasing out of ineffective fossil fuel subsidies.” It also mentioned the “gradual exclusion of inefficient fossil subsidies.”
Situation after Glasgow
Since fossil fuels are still a part of our lives, many countries had so far failed to come up with a solution until Glasgow. On the other hand, even if the pledges are not at the desired level, COP26 came to a promising close, demonstrating a change in the international conjuncture.
What’s expected for coal now? According to research, plans to phase out 380 plants with a capacity of approximately 260 gigawatts (GW) were drawn up before the Glasgow session, and this figure has increased to 750 coal-fired power plants with a capacity of 550 GW after the commitments made in Scotland. In addition, it is worth noting that 1,600 coal-fired power plants with a value of 1,420 GW are included in the carbon-neutral targets of the countries.
Ninety new coal projects are expected to have a capacity of approximately 88 GW. It is considered certain that new coal investments will be canceled and prevented. Considering the carbon-neutral targets stated by the countries, 130 projects in China and Indonesia with a capacity of approximately 165 GW are probably on the agenda.
On the other hand, only 250 coal power plants currently operating in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries are expected to be shut down by 2030, while, in non-OECD countries, 130 power plants are expected to cease operations by 2050. Studies conducted by various sectors say the closure plans are inadequate and off to a late start in terms of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement.
On the other hand, new steps from Germany and the U.S. are expected to increase the number of coal plants that will be closed. Therefore, in the coming period, it seems possible that we will witness more of an escape from coal within the scope of aligning the goals of countries with the Paris Agreement.
Turkey’s green transformation
When we look at the whole picture, we clearly see that coal is being removed from the stage of history through a common global effort, rather than the individual efforts of some countries. The rapid decrease in the costs of renewable energy sources, especially solar energy, compared to coal and other fossil fuels, signals that this transformation will continue. Therefore, it would not be a surprise to expect the struggle that started with coal to spread to other fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas. With the development and dissemination of electric vehicle technologies, ensuring energy efficiency in buildings and technological breakthroughs in the field of renewable energy, the future looks positive.
Turkey, for example, has started the necessary works to achieve the net-zero emission target it has set for 2053, by continuing its successful climate finance management that accompanies its high emission reduction potential. Turkey, which ranks fifth in Europe and 12th in the world in terms of renewable energy potential, clearly demonstrates its intention to move away from the fossil fuel-based development model with its significant investments in renewable energy to date. Despite being far behind the developed countries, with the Green Development Revolution, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has said that Turkey will be at the forefront of this global green transformation and will continue to be one of the leading countries in the fight against climate change.
