Currently, the world is 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than in the pre-industrial era, the effects of which are seen at great cost. The consequences of this temperature increase being 1.5 degrees Celsius, 2 degrees Celcius or even 3.2 degrees Celcius if no precautions are taken, are unimaginable.
The report on “mitigation,” the third and final part of the 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has been published. In this report, 278 scientists from 65 countries presented what needs to be done regarding the blue planet’s struggle for existence.
In the report, which is the fruit of a great seven years’ effort, especially after 2017, the message that it is possible to halve global carbon emissions by 2030 was given within the framework of “the evidence is there. Now it is time to act.” However, it was also one of the prominent issues that if greenhouse gas emissions remain in their current state, the global temperature increase could exceed 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), exceeding the Paris Climate Agreement’s target value of 1.5 degrees Celsius by double. Such a picture undoubtedly means that the pressure on people, ecosystems and natural life will increase exponentially.
Emissions continue to increase
Despite global adaptation and mitigation efforts in the past 50 years, in which the reality of climate change has been understood, global greenhouse gas emissions have witnessed an upward trend. However, the rate of increase has also partially decreased. Nonetheless, it was stated that the greenhouse gas emissions recorded in the past decade, that is, in the 2010-2019 period, were the highest in human history.
According to the report, it was stated that the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted from 1850 to 2019 reached 2,400 billion tons, and 58% of this value was emitted between 1850 and 1990, while the remaining 42% was emitted in the last 30 years. In the report, evaluating on the basis of 2019 global greenhouse gas emissions, it is stated that 38 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (gton CO2e) greenhouse gas emissions were released into the atmosphere in 1990, and this amount reached 59 tons in 2019 with an increase of 54%. The report notes that the remaining carbon budget is 510 gtons for limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period, which was envisaged by the Paris Climate Agreement and included in the Main Resolution of the 26th Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP26) held in Glasgow, and this amount will expire in a short period of eight to 10 years under current conditions.
In the report, which states that emissions are directly related to the income level of emissions, it is noted that the consumption-based emissions of the richest 10% of households in the world constitute between 34% and 45% of global emissions, while the bottom 50% in terms of income level is responsible for only 15% of all greenhouse gas emissions. Parallelly, it is emphasized that per capita emissions in developed countries exceeded the amount emitted in regions such as Asia, the Pacific, Africa and Latin America by two times.
Another issue covered in the report is emissions related to the production of goods and products exported to or imported from a country, that is, trade-indexed emissions. It is emphasized in the report that developed countries are the main net importers of carbon emissions, while Asian and Pacific countries are the largest net exporters of CO2 emissions. In the report, which states that the fivefold increase in world trade volume in the last 40 years has also led to an increase in trade-indexed emissions, it is stated that a quarter (25%) of global emissions since 2014 has been trade-based.
There is hope
The report emphasizes that emissions have reached the peak value in human history. However, while the average annual increase in the last 10 years has been 1.3%, this value was 2.1% in the previous decade, therefore there was a decrease of 0.8% in the rate or increase.
Nevertheless, the special report titled “1.5 degrees Celsius Global Warming” published by the IPCC in 2018 shows that human-sourced global net carbon emissions should be reduced by 45% by 2030 compared to 2010 values in order to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Therefore, it is emphasized that the decrease in the increase experienced here will provide a net increase of 14% in emissions until 2030. In this case, a decrease of 0.8 points in the increase rate will not be effective enough and the value of 1.5 degrees Celsius will be “unreachable” in this context.
On the other hand, it is stated in the report that there is still hope as climate-oriented policies developed in areas such as energy efficiency, prevention of deforestation, and promotion of renewable energy, as well as investments made, technological developments and cost reductions in renewable energy resources look promising.
The IPCC news demonstrates that more than 10 countries, including countries such as France and the United States, have reduced their emissions by 4% on average in line with 2 degrees Celcius, and there are cost-effective carbon emission reduction methods that can meet half of the 2030 emission reduction target. The gradual growth of urbanization has also spread to emissions, and its impact on global emissions has grown significantly. Depending on variables such as level of development, living standards and population, there can be great regional differences in the formation of emissions.
The IPCC recommends that in addition to reducing or ending greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gases already emitted in the atmosphere should also be reduced; underlining the need for rapid and radical transformations in all sectors such as energy, transportation, food, industry, building, etc. In this context, the IPCC recommends that carbon removal methods become widespread by including carbon capture and storage systems for the first time.
For the first time, the Working Group 3 of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report includes a section on the effects of people’s choices on emissions. According to calculations made in the report, it is possible to reduce emissions between 40 and 70% with changes in lifestyles or preferences, but this should be due to structural and cultural changes on a social rather than individual basis, and restrictions in the current COVID-19 process can greatly lead to changes in lifestyle and behavior in the short term. At this point, it is stated in the report that the biggest reduction potential will be in the changes in demand for food with an equivalent of 8 billion tons of CO2, and that land transportation options have the second biggest potential with an equivalent of 6.5 billion tons of CO2.
The report also mentions mitigation in the industry, which is the most important contributor of greenhouse gas, being possible, although difficult, and that these difficulties can be overcome with coordinated actions throughout the entire value chain. In this context, it is noted that options such as material and energy efficiency, demand management, cyclical material flow, transition to emission-reducing technologies or process changes can be evaluated. In addition, the report asserted that new production processes, hydrogen and carbon capture, and storage systems should become widespread, while low/zero emission processes in some carbon-intensive sectors such as iron and steel, which are expected to enter the commercial stage in the near future, are cited as examples.
The report also emphasizes on how low-carbon choices can reduce individual carbon footprints by 9 tons of CO2, but this can be achieved not only by reducing flights but also by considering options such as plant-based nutrition, transition to public transportation, electric vehicle, bicycle transportation or heat pumps.
Transformation in energy
According to the report’s data, the energy supply sector was the largest emission area in 2019 with a share of 34% (20 gtons of CO2 equivalent). An equivalent of 4 gtons of CO2 of these emissions are from fugitive emissions, while 14 gtons of CO2 equivalents are from electricity and heat generation.
Currently, the share of solar and wind in electricity generation on a global basis has exceeded 1%. This value is expected to reach 42% by 2030. This data is in line with the International Energy Agency’s proposal that the share of solar and wind should be 40% in 2030, according to the Net Zero Scenario. In order to realize this statistic, these two sectors, which have grown by more than 20% on an annual basis in the past 10 years, must maintain their growth rate in the current 10-year period.
The report emphasizes that using fewer fossil fuels is essential to limit global warming to certain values. At this point, coal use should be reduced by 75% by 2030 and 95% by 2050 compared to 2019, gas use by 10% by 2030 and by 45% by 2050 compared to 2019, and the use of petroleum should be reduced by 10% until 2030 and 60% by 2050 compared to 2019.
Likewise, the report states that low-carbon energy sources are growing rapidly and will constitute 88% of the primary energy source in 2100.
Cycling or zero-emission transportation
The IPCC report also mentions the need for transformation in the transportation sector for achieving climate reduction targets, and notes that transportation is the fourth largest area in 2019 global emissions with 1%, of which 69% is land transportation, 9% is sea transportation and 7% is air transportation.
According to the findings, if no measures are taken, emissions from transportation are predicted to increase by 65% in 2050 due to the increase in demand for cargo transportation and passenger services. However, on the contrary, with the implementation of effective reduction strategies, emissions from transportation can be reduced by 68% on a sectoral basis, and this situation is stated to be compatible with the target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. The report, which shows decrease in transportation-related emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggests behavioral changes on a social basis are effective in this framework.
It is asserted that city transport alone accounts for 8% of global carbon emissions, and the biggest development since the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has been experienced in the electromobility (electric vehicles, bikes, buses, scooters, etc.) arena, which have had a positive impact in terms of reducing emissions. Similarly, in view of technological developments, it is pointed out that the decrease of up to 85% in the cost of lithium-ion batteries in the last 10 years has undoubtedly accelerated the trend toward electric vehicles, and in this context, there has been a hundredfold increase in the number of electric vehicles.
Underlining that carbon removal is absolutely necessary in order to keep the global temperature increase at 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial period, which was put into place by the Paris Climate Agreement and directly included in the COP26 decisions, it is evaluated in the report that alternatives such as stopping deforestation and direct carbon capture are inevitable at this point. Another carbon removal mechanism featured in the report is solar geoengineering. The main purpose of studies in this field is to reduce the global temperature increase to some extent by reducing the effect of sunlight on the world. At this point, it is emphasized that there are studies on methods, such as more aerosol release into the air, reduction of heat-trapping clouds, etc. However, solar geoengineering cannot be the main policy tool for climate change, but it can be an auxiliary factor in terms of the net zero target. It is also stated that comprehensive studies should be carried out on the risks of this method on ecosystems.
However, the report also looks at the feasibility of ocean-based CO2 removal methods, including “blue carbon management,” specifically to increase carbon stores of shallow coastal ecosystems such as coastal swamps, mangroves and seagrass meadows created by ocean tides.
Investments need to increase
The report, which draws attention to the need for climate finance to increase by at least three to six times for the transition to a low-carbon world, or in other words, for the effective realization of the 2030 reduction targets, it is emphasized that these values differ from region to region, from industry to industry, and according to global temperature target values.
According to the report, the amount of global investment required for the movement in line with the 1.5 degrees Celcius target in the electricity sector alone is $2.3 trillion on an annual basis in the 2023-2052 period. This value stands at $1.7 trillion in the target of limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius. Likewise, in the agriculture, forestry and land use sectors, investments are expected to increase between 10 and 29 times in order to conform with Paris Climate Agreement targets. Again, in order to limit the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius, investments needed on a regional basis must increase five times in developing countries of Southeast Asia and the Pacific, seven times in Africa, and 12 times in the Middle East.
On the other hand, a decrease in unit costs of low-emission technologies is also considered pleasing.
While it is noted the financial flows needed to be made until 2030 in order to limit the temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius is three to six times lower, it is also pointed out that there is enough global capital and liquidity to close the investment gap. According to the report, while the slowdown in global growth is 0.04% on an annual basis for the 1.5 degrees Celsius target, this value is expected to be as low as 0.03% for 2 degrees Celsius. Therefore, the report stated that in order not to pay a higher price, some compromises must be made from our current comfort for the transition to a low-carbon life.
After the publication of the report, many explanations were made on the subject. IPCC Third Working Group Co-Chair Jim Skea stated that climate change is the result of a century of wild energy and living habits based on land use, production and consumption patterns, and this report suggests how to take action now and move to a more just and sustainable world.
Unfortunately, the report was overshadowed by the Russia-Ukraine war and did not receive the necessary public attention. However, there was a monotony in responses. The harshest assessment came from U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. In his statement, he asserted that many leaders did the opposite of what they pledged, or in short, they lied and dragged the world further into a disaster.
Rising energy prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine war led countries to review their energy policies. While major emission producers such as the United States, the United Kingdom and European Union are considering increasing fossil fuels, the IPCC report shows that such a move will fall far behind the 1.5 degrees Celsius target.
U.S. Presidential Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry also reiterated the need for faster action. He stated that the report shows that we are lagging behind in the fight against the adverse impacts of the climate crisis, but that we also have the necessary opportunities for adaptation and mitigation, which we can turn to net zero by 2050 by halving emissions by 2030, and that we can secure a healthier and cleaner planet.
Yes, the world is undergoing a transformation. The crises that started with the COVID-19 process, the rising tension between countries, the rise in energy prices and rising food prices due to drought, demand some changes: Conscious production and consumption patterns, or sustainable production and consumption-oriented life models. Currently, the world is 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than in the pre-industrial era, the effects of which are seen at great cost. The effects of this temperature increase being 1.5 degrees Celsius, 2 degrees Celcius and even 3.2 degrees Celcius if no precautions are taken, are unimaginable.
Therefore, change and transformation are possible with the mantra of “let’s change ourselves before the climate changes.”
